Current Research Bulletin

This paper examines the implications of U.S.–China geopolitical competition over lithium resources for energy security, with a focus on South Asia. Home to nearly 25% of the world's population, South Asia is a developing region facing rising energy demands driven by economic growth. Lithium is a critical resource due to its central role in rechargeable batteries used in electric vehicles, smartphones, laptops, and renewable energy storage systems, supporting the global shift from petroleum to clean energy. The lithium-ion battery market has expanded rapidly, becoming one of the fastest-growing raw material markets worldwide. Reflecting its strategic importance, lithium was declared essential to U.S. economic and national security in 2018, and to the European Union's industrial strategy in 2020. This shift has intensified U.S.–China competition over lithium production, processing, and supply chains, influencing energy security, trade, and pricing dynamics in South Asia. The paper assesses how this rivalry may shape regional development.

Lithium Geopolitics, US-China Competition, Energy Security, South Asia, Renewable Energy.

1. Ahmed, S., Mahmood, A., Hasan, A., Sidhu, G. A. S., & Butt, M. F. U. (2016). A comparative review of China, India and Pakistan renewable energy sectors and sharing opportunities. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, 216–225.
2. Allison, G. (2020). The new spheres of influence: Sharing the globe with other great powers. Foreign Affairs, 99, 30.
3. Altiparmak, S. O. (2023). China and lithium geopolitics in a changing global market. Chinese Political Science Review, 8, 487–506.
4. Asia Pacific Energy Portal. (n.d.-a). Renewable Energy Roadmap for Afghanistan (RER2032). https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/node/3453 
5. Asia Pacific Energy Portal. (n.d.-b). National Renewable Energy Framework, Nepal. https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/node/3778
6. Asian Development Bank. (n.d.-a). Electricity generation and renewable energy 2050: Sri Lanka. https://www.adb.org/publications/electricity-generation-renewable-energy-2050-sri-lanka 
7. Asian Development Bank. (n.d.-b). ADB, Maldives sign agreements to expand renewable energy access. https://www.adb.org/news/adb-maldives-sign-agreements-expand-renewable-energy-access 
8. Calisaya-Azpilcueta, D., Herrera-Leon, S., Lucay, F. A., & Cisternas, L. A. (2020). Assessment of the supply chain under uncertainty: The case of lithium. Minerals, 10(7), 604.
9. Campbell, K. M., & Ratner, E. (2018). The China reckoning: How Beijing defied American expectations. Foreign Affairs, 97, 60.
10. Center, S., & Bates, E. (2019). Historical perspectives on innovation, technology, and strategic competition. Tech-Politik.
11. Chaubey, N., Qurashi, A., Chauhan, D. S., & Quraishi, M. A. (2021). Frontiers and advances in green and sustainable inhibitors for corrosion applications: A critical review. Journal of Molecular Liquids, 321, 114385.
12. Crawford, T. (2021). Lithium, the big picture. One Earth, 4(3), 323–326.
13. Dorn, F. M., & Peyré, F. R. (2020). Lithium as a strategic resource. Journal of Latin American Geography, 19(4), 68–90.
14. Dyatkin, B., Gamache, R. M., Rock, B. Y., Qadri, S. B., Edelen III, W. K., & Laskoski, M. (2020). Microwave-assisted pressureless sintering of silicon-reinforced boron carbide composites. Journal of Solid State Chemistry, 292, 121659.
15. Egbue, O., & Long, S. (2012). Barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles: An analysis of consumer attitudes and perceptions. Energy Policy, 48, 717–729.
16. Elsheikh, A. H., Sharshir, S. W., Abd Elaziz, M., Kabeel, A. E., Guilan, W., & Haiou, Z. (2019). Modeling of solar energy systems using artificial neural network: A comprehensive review. Solar Energy, 180, 622–639.
17. The Express Tribune. (2024). Chinese photovoltaic exports to Pakistan skyrocket. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2499188/chinese-photovoltaic-exports-to-pakistan-skyrocket
18. Fan, E., Li, L., Wang, Z., Lin, J., Huang, Y., Yao, Y., & Wu, F. (2020). Sustainable recycling technology for Li-ion batteries and beyond: Challenges and future prospects. Chemical Reviews, 120(14), 7020–7063.
19. The Financial Express. (n.d.). Global Mediklaud to provide cloud-based hospital ERP solution for Apollo Clinic Dhanmondi. https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/trade/global-mediklaud-to-provide-cloud-based-hospital-erp-solution-for-apollo-clinic-  dhanmondi [Note: this source URL, as supplied for the Bangladesh solar-sector discussion in Section 11, does not correspond to solar/renewable-energy content; the author(s) should verify and replace it with the correct source before submission.]
20. Flexer, V., Baspineiro, C. F., & Galli, C. I. (2018). Lithium recovery from brines: A vital raw material for green energies with a potential environmental impact in its mining and processing. Science of the Total Environment, 639, 1188–1204.
21. Gonzales, A., Sanhueza, C., & Roa, C. (n.d.). El mercado del litio y la importancia de Chile. Comisión Chilena del Cobre. https://www.cochilco.cl/Presentaciones/PPT%20Litio%20agosto%202020.pdf 
22. Graham, J. D., Rup, J. A., & Brungard, E. (2021). Lithium in the green energy transition: The quest for both sustainability and security. Sustainability, 13(20), 11274.
23. International Energy Agency. (2023). Share of renewable electricity generation by technology, 2000–2028 [Chart]. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/share-of-renewable-electricity-generation-by-technology-2000-2028 
24. International Energy Agency. (2024a). Past and future energy investment in China in the Announced Pledges Scenario and in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, 2016–2030 [Chart]. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/past-and-future-energy-investment-in-china-in-the-announced-pledges-scenario-and-in-the-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-scenario-2016-20300 
25. International Energy Agency. (2024b). Past and future energy investment in the United States in the Announced Pledges Scenario and in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, 2016–2030 [Chart]. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/past-and-future-energy-investment-in-the-united-states-in-the-announced-pledges-scenario-and-in-the-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-scenario-2016-2030 
26. International Trade Administration. (n.d.). India – Renewable energy. U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/india-renewable-energy
27. Jaskula, B. (2021). Mineral commodity summaries: Lithium. U.S. Geological Survey. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-lithium.pdf 
28. Kalantzakos, S. (2020). The race for critical minerals in an era of geopolitical realignments. The International Spectator, 55(3), 1–16.
29. Koning, M., Mertens, G., & Roosenboom, P. (2018). Drivers of institutional change around the world: The case of IFRS. Journal of International Business Studies, 49, 249–271.
30. Lipman, T. E., & Maier, P. (2021). Advanced materials supply considerations for electric vehicle applications. MRS Bulletin, 46(12), 1164–1175.
31. Luttwak, E. N. (1990). From geopolitics to geo-economics: Logic of conflict, grammar of commerce. The National Interest, 20, 17–23.
32. Mattis, P. (2018). From engagement to rivalry: Tools to compete with China.
33. Mazarr, M. J., Blake, J., Casey, A., McDonald, T., Pezard, S., & Spirtas, M. (2018). Understanding the emerging era of international competition: Theoretical and historical perspectives. RAND Corporation.
34. Milner, H. (1992). International theories of cooperation among nations: Strengths and weaknesses. World Politics, 44(3), 466–496.
35. Mnookin, R. H., Peppet, S. R., & Tulumello, A. S. (2004). Beyond winning: Negotiating to create value in deals and disputes. Harvard University Press.
36. Observer Research Foundation. (n.d.). Bhutan: Diversifying renewable energy sources. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/bhutan-diversifying-renewable-energy-sources 
37. Overland, I. (2019). The geopolitics of renewable energy: Debunking four emerging myths. Energy Research & Social Science, 49, 36–40.
38. Petavratzi, E., & Josso, P. (2021). Global material flows of lithium for the lithium-ion and lithium iron phosphate battery markets. British Geological Survey.
39. Pradhan, R. (2022). Energy geopolitics and the new great game in Central Asia. Millennial Asia, 13(2), 265–288.
40. Shen, C., & Zeng, Q. (2022). Research on the marketing communication strategy of Tesla Motors in China under the background of new media. In Proceedings of the 2022 7th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2022) (pp. 947–951). Atlantis Press.
41. Statista. (2024). Average lithium carbonate prices from 2010 to 2023 (in U.S. dollars per metric ton). https://www.statista.com/statistics/606350/battery-grade-lithium-carbonate-price/ 
42. Sun, J., Liang, D., Meng, X., & Li, Z. (2022). Recent advances in lithium extraction using electrode materials of Li-ion battery from brine/seawater. Processes, 10(12), 2654. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr10122654 
43. Sun, X., Liu, Z., Zhao, F., & Hao, H. (2021). Global competition in the lithium-ion battery supply chain: A novel perspective for criticality analysis. Environmental Science & Technology, 55(18), 12180–12190.
44. U.S. Geological Survey. (2017). USGS numbered series open-file reports [Data set]. https://pubs.usgs.gov/browse/Report/USGS%20Numbered%20Series/Open-File%20Report/2017/ 
45. Vakulchuk, R., Overland, I., & Scholten, D. (2020). Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 122, 109547.